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Scary thought we all need to prepare for: your market might not ever come back.
What do I mean by market? Literally anything that’s struggling right now. Where everyone is holding on for dear life.
When people talk about ‘markets’ they usually think stock markets. Maybe real estate markets. Or what I talk about a lot: job markets.
Jack Raines wrote a fun piece a couple weeks ago, “11 Things That 0% Interest Rates Caused” here. A hysterical breakdown of things that only existed because of the Bull Market Phenomenon. Concepts were that entirely propped up by 0% interest rates.
And are now over.
It got me thinking more about the employment dichotomy: we have record low 3.4% unemployment mixed with non-stop high profile layoff news.
When I talk to people (in real life mind you, not social media land), everyone’s company is in the same boat: “We’re doing ok but we’re waiting for things to turn around.”
As workers, we need to come to the realization: it’s not going to turn around for everyone.
This isn’t a doomsday take. I couldn’t be a bigger believer in the US economy’s resilience. As a whole.
So when I say the market might not even come back, I mean the micro-markets for things that maybe we don’t really need. And how that impacts the people who get a paycheck there.
👉Like SaaS firms who sell SaaS sales tools to other SaaS firms selling SaaS sales tools.
👉Like digital ad spend from companies who realized buyer attribution models in any remotely complex sales cycle are smoke and mirrors.
👉Like (as Jack pointed out) high dollar monkey gif avatar NFTs that can be defeated with a right click. Or crypto. Or web3.
Even companies who have a “real” business are taking a look inward. Was all of it real? Did we overshoot on a couple of these product lines? Is demand ever coming back?
If it’s not a bump in the road, but the end of the road, what does that mean for your career?
The world will need sales people and marketers and engineers and accountants and even yes, recruiters. But perhaps not in the type of place you set your sights on.
Partner at Hirewell. #3 Ranked Sarcastic Commenter on LinkedIn.
If you’re hiring in 2026, you’re dealing with two realities at the same time.
First, traditional signals like degrees and pedigree are losing their value.
Second, Gen Z is reshaping expectations around speed, transparency, and trust.
Together, those forces are pushing talent acquisition into its next evolution.
As we outlined in Agentic HR Is Here: What Talent Acquisition Really Looks Like in 2026, recruiting is becoming more autonomous at the execution level. But autonomy alone doesn’t solve the core hiring problem.
You still need a better way to evaluate people.
That’s where skills-first hiring comes in.
For decades, degrees were used as a shortcut.
Not because they reliably predicted success, but because they reduced perceived risk and simplified decision-making.
That logic no longer holds.
Roles are changing too fast. Job titles mean less than they used to. And in a market where AI can generate a polished resume in seconds, pedigree is an even weaker signal.
Companies need capability, not credentials.
The bigger shift isn’t just skills-based hiring. It’s skills intelligence.
Instead of organizing work around static job descriptions, companies are starting to think in terms of capabilities. Work is assigned based on skill, not hierarchy or tenure.
This is the same evolution happening across workforce planning more broadly. Not headcount planning, but capability planning.
And it’s the only model that holds up in a fast-moving market.
Skills-first hiring is gaining traction because it solves multiple problems at once.
It improves quality of hire.
It increases internal mobility.
It reduces bias tied to pedigree.
And it aligns better with how work actually gets done.
But it’s also accelerating for a more practical reason.
The resume is no longer reliable.
As we covered in The AI-on-AI Hiring Arms Race, recruiting teams are now dealing with a flood of highly optimized, AI-generated applications. Many look great on paper and collapse under real scrutiny.
When that happens, skills-based evaluation stops being a “nice to have.” It becomes the only way to restore signal.
Now layer in Gen Z.
By 2026, Gen Z is one of the fastest-growing segments of the workforce. They are also the least tolerant of slow, opaque hiring processes.
One of the most important data points in the market right now is this:
A majority of Gen Z candidates will drop out if a hiring process exceeds 22 days.
Speed, to them, isn’t about impatience. It’s about competence.
If a company can’t run a clear, efficient hiring process, candidates assume it can’t run the business well either.
It’s a trust issue.
A large percentage of job seekers report that looking for work negatively impacts their mental health. The biggest driver isn’t rejection.
It’s silence.
Waiting to hear back. No closure. No clarity on next steps.
For Gen Z, that lack of transparency is a dealbreaker. It signals misalignment, not just poor communication.
In 2026, how you hire is inseparable from how you’re perceived as an employer.
For Gen Z, the hiring experience is part of the offer.
They expect:
If the process feels like a black box, they assume the culture is the same.
This is where skills-first hiring and agentic systems intersect. Technology can speed up execution, but only leadership can ensure the experience remains human.
The companies adapting fastest in 2026 are focused on a few fundamentals:
Skills-first hiring isn’t just about fairness. It’s about accuracy.
And Gen Z isn’t asking for special treatment. They’re forcing employers to modernize a hiring process that’s been broken for a long time.
The companies that adapt will hire better, faster, and with less churn. The companies that don’t will keep blaming the market while losing candidates to competitors who simply run a better process.
Most companies agree with skills-first hiring in theory. Very few have operationalized it in a way that actually improves outcomes. If you want help redesigning your hiring process for 2026, especially around skills-based evaluation and candidate experience, we can help. Reach out and we’ll walk you through what’s working right now.