February 20, 2023

Some markets may never come back

Authors:

Partner at Hirewell. #3 Ranked Sarcastic Commenter on LinkedIn.

But the world will still need workers

Scary thought we all need to prepare for: your market might not ever come back.

What do I mean by market? Literally anything that’s struggling right now. Where everyone is holding on for dear life.

When people talk about ‘markets’ they usually think stock markets. Maybe real estate markets. Or what I talk about a lot: job markets.

Jack Raines wrote a fun piece a couple weeks ago, “11 Things That 0% Interest Rates Caused” here. A hysterical breakdown of things that only existed because of the Bull Market Phenomenon. Concepts were that entirely propped up by 0% interest rates. 

And are now over.

It got me thinking more about the employment dichotomy: we have record low 3.4% unemployment mixed with non-stop high profile layoff news.

When I talk to people (in real life mind you, not social media land), everyone’s company is in the same boat: “We’re doing ok but we’re waiting for things to turn around.”

As workers, we need to come to the realization: it’s not going to turn around for everyone.

This isn’t a doomsday take. I couldn’t be a bigger believer in the US economy’s resilience. As a whole.

So when I say the market might not even come back, I mean the micro-markets for things that maybe we don’t really need. And how that impacts the people who get a paycheck there.

👉Like SaaS firms who sell SaaS sales tools to other SaaS firms selling SaaS sales tools. 

👉Like digital ad spend from companies who realized buyer attribution models in any remotely complex sales cycle are smoke and mirrors.

👉Like (as Jack pointed out) high dollar monkey gif avatar NFTs that can be defeated with a right click. Or crypto. Or web3.

Even companies who have a “real” business are taking a look inward. Was all of it real? Did we overshoot on a couple of these product lines? Is demand ever coming back?

If it’s not a bump in the road, but the end of the road, what does that mean for your career?

The world will need sales people and marketers and engineers and accountants and even yes, recruiters. But perhaps not in the type of place you set your sights on.

Partner at Hirewell. #3 Ranked Sarcastic Commenter on LinkedIn.

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