I don’t know anything but I’m calling the bottom anyway.
6 months ago, one of my clients (the CEO of a company) needed to hire a bunch of tech peeps. My eyes light up. F yeah.
Then he drops “but we’re gonna wait. Big Tech’s gotta make cuts at some point.”
My honest, initial reaction (in my mind): lol. Keep dreaming. The market’s soft but that ain’t happening.
Have I ever told you how much I hate being wrong? But when I am, I own it.
(Before you say anything: I know how this reads and I’m double affirming this is not one of those fake social media stories.)
Lightning can’t strike twice, can it? Naw. Never. I hate predictions and I’m a firm believer that no one knows anything, but I’ll make one anyway: we’re at the bottom.
Yes, the headlines will be coming. No, we’re not going to bounce back to a bonkers hiring market tomorrow.
But an actionable takeaway: If you have the budget. You need to hire. And you’re still waiting…
👉You are missing the best 2-3 month span to hire in the past 10 years.
Even more so than April/May/June 2020. Sure, the entire world isn’t melting down like it was then. Unemployment is a fraction of what it was.
But there’s one huge difference: Big Tech isn’t driving salaries through the roof.
In 2021/early 2022, Big Tech was over-hiring with total comp packages no one else could sniff. Leaning into equity, $400k-$600k for software engineers was common (and good for y’all for getting it.) We saw it in real time. It was absurd.
Few firms could compete with that. Great up and coming challengers, well run established orgs, etc. Lots of places could offer strong comp (by any measure), but couldn’t compete with THAT.
Well, that’s over. (At least for a few months, who knows.)
Hiring orgs: this is what you’ve been waiting for. If you have the means, let it rip.