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On Friday we had another “blow it out of the water” jobs report. But we still have a ton of out-of-work recruiters. What’s going on?
If you missed it: +339,000 jobs in May. (Source.)
That includes 64,000 jobs in professional and business services. Or as we (I) affectionately call them (us): office dorks.
Unemployment did rise 0.3% to 3.7%. But that’s still incredibly low. Historically speaking.
Meanwhile, the market is on fire. The S&P 500 is up 12% for the year. Nasdaq’s up around 30%. (Those of you with a time machine in your basement, I highly recommend going back and getting long /NQ futures.)
More hiring. More investment. But still not many recruiter openings on a relative basis.
3 things that are happening:
1. The open jobs to unemployed worker ratio is way, way down.
It was 2:1 in March 2022. And only 1.6:1 in March 2023. (Source.)
I think using job ads as an indicator of real job openings is problematic for a variety of reasons. But…a 20% drop is huge.
Key thing to remember: unlike every other function in a company, recruiters aren’t needed to maintain. They’re needed to grow (or replace.)
👉There’s not a lack of demand. There’s a lack of *excessive* demand.
Remember “the war for talent?” Easily my least favorite catch phrase of the past decade. But that war is currently at a stalemate.
Companies are not eating each other alive to hire the way they were. Talking to my HR and internal TA contacts recently, the amount of inbound candidates they’re getting is up. Outbound isn’t as necessary. And the candidates they do get don’t have as many other offers.
(Vetting inbound candidates is still a challenge but that’s another rant for another day.)
2. Only 7 stocks are driving the stock market: Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla. (Source.)
This isn’t abnormal. The biggest firms have propped up the market for over a decade now. They’re massive. And their big up moves lift the market disproportionately.
But the effect of not every company joining the fun? They’re not full bore hiring.
Also, The Seven (yes that’s a The Boys reference) just did their massive layoffs. They aren’t participating in the hiring that’s happening right now.
And they’re the ones who drove the ‘war for talent’ the last few years. So back to point #1.
3. If you’re reading this, you’re probably in the office dork bubble.
Tech firms are only 3% of the economy. It feels massive when you’re in it. But the LinkedIn & Business Twitter echo chamber is a drop in the bucket.
When my non-work friends get together and discuss work (gross, I know), it’s the tale of two markets. Half complain no one is hiring. The other half complains they can’t find anyone.
Both seem unaware of the other group’s situation.
Manufacturing ain’t sexy, but they need people.
Partner at Hirewell. #3 Ranked Sarcastic Commenter on LinkedIn.
If you’re hiring in 2026, you’re dealing with two realities at the same time.
First, traditional signals like degrees and pedigree are losing their value.
Second, Gen Z is reshaping expectations around speed, transparency, and trust.
Together, those forces are pushing talent acquisition into its next evolution.
As we outlined in Agentic HR Is Here: What Talent Acquisition Really Looks Like in 2026, recruiting is becoming more autonomous at the execution level. But autonomy alone doesn’t solve the core hiring problem.
You still need a better way to evaluate people.
That’s where skills-first hiring comes in.
For decades, degrees were used as a shortcut.
Not because they reliably predicted success, but because they reduced perceived risk and simplified decision-making.
That logic no longer holds.
Roles are changing too fast. Job titles mean less than they used to. And in a market where AI can generate a polished resume in seconds, pedigree is an even weaker signal.
Companies need capability, not credentials.
The bigger shift isn’t just skills-based hiring. It’s skills intelligence.
Instead of organizing work around static job descriptions, companies are starting to think in terms of capabilities. Work is assigned based on skill, not hierarchy or tenure.
This is the same evolution happening across workforce planning more broadly. Not headcount planning, but capability planning.
And it’s the only model that holds up in a fast-moving market.
Skills-first hiring is gaining traction because it solves multiple problems at once.
It improves quality of hire.
It increases internal mobility.
It reduces bias tied to pedigree.
And it aligns better with how work actually gets done.
But it’s also accelerating for a more practical reason.
The resume is no longer reliable.
As we covered in The AI-on-AI Hiring Arms Race, recruiting teams are now dealing with a flood of highly optimized, AI-generated applications. Many look great on paper and collapse under real scrutiny.
When that happens, skills-based evaluation stops being a “nice to have.” It becomes the only way to restore signal.
Now layer in Gen Z.
By 2026, Gen Z is one of the fastest-growing segments of the workforce. They are also the least tolerant of slow, opaque hiring processes.
One of the most important data points in the market right now is this:
A majority of Gen Z candidates will drop out if a hiring process exceeds 22 days.
Speed, to them, isn’t about impatience. It’s about competence.
If a company can’t run a clear, efficient hiring process, candidates assume it can’t run the business well either.
It’s a trust issue.
A large percentage of job seekers report that looking for work negatively impacts their mental health. The biggest driver isn’t rejection.
It’s silence.
Waiting to hear back. No closure. No clarity on next steps.
For Gen Z, that lack of transparency is a dealbreaker. It signals misalignment, not just poor communication.
In 2026, how you hire is inseparable from how you’re perceived as an employer.
For Gen Z, the hiring experience is part of the offer.
They expect:
If the process feels like a black box, they assume the culture is the same.
This is where skills-first hiring and agentic systems intersect. Technology can speed up execution, but only leadership can ensure the experience remains human.
The companies adapting fastest in 2026 are focused on a few fundamentals:
Skills-first hiring isn’t just about fairness. It’s about accuracy.
And Gen Z isn’t asking for special treatment. They’re forcing employers to modernize a hiring process that’s been broken for a long time.
The companies that adapt will hire better, faster, and with less churn. The companies that don’t will keep blaming the market while losing candidates to competitors who simply run a better process.
Most companies agree with skills-first hiring in theory. Very few have operationalized it in a way that actually improves outcomes. If you want help redesigning your hiring process for 2026, especially around skills-based evaluation and candidate experience, we can help. Reach out and we’ll walk you through what’s working right now.