A questionable hard pivot into economics
👉No one knows anything.
That’s the takeaway from today’s hard pivot into economics, which I’m already regretting. But I’m already 17 words in so why stop now…
First came the corporate layoff announcements. Then the personal ones. Then the takes around less job openings (based on job postings, if that’s even an accurate measure.) And now the “we’re doomed” predictions have started.
Lucky for us, no one knows anything.
Fun fact about me which I’ve never mentioned before: I’m a derivatives trader. On my own dime. Been doing it almost a decade. Probably (hopefully?) above average knowledge of the financial markets, but I’m no expert. (Experts can predict what will happen next. There are literally none of those.)
I make one promise: my market predictions stay in my head, where they belong.
Because I don’t know anything either.
So why talk about this? Two reasons:
1. We’re at an intersection where the relationship with the job market, the stock market, interest rates, currency rates, and a bunch of other factors I won’t pretend to understand are intertwined in counterintuitive ways.
Example: from 2020-2021, positive jobs reports = market rally.
Last Friday, positive jobs report = market tanked.
Long story short: the Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates to make the job market suck. Less people have jobs, less people have money, prices go down. Unfortunately so does the stock market.
That’s the theory, anyway.
2. All you can do is the things you should have been doing anyway.
I’ve worked through 3 major recessions. Do these things *all the time*, not just when you feel the writing is all the wall:
👉Diversify your offerings.
“The riches are in the niches” rhymes and works great. Until that niche completely evaporates and you go out of business.
👉Diversity your client base.
If you’ve landed 1-2 massive clients, congrats. But you’re also 1-2 cancellations away from going under.
👉Maximize your relationships.
Combine the first two points. It will involve more people who focus on different things. Coordinating these efforts themselves is a massive undertaking. But worth it.
👉Ignore the fear posting on social media.
You guessed it: no one knows anything.