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My prediction on what we’ll learn from the current downturn?
Not much. Lol.
What? You were expecting something more optimistic?
Let’s review a few trends:
Here’s the kicker: these were the trends from the mid/late 2020 Covid hiring slowdown. And we’re seeing them all over again now.
And they’re the exact opposite of what we saw in the hot hiring markets of 2021 and early 2022.
So yeah, that will come back too. When the market gets hot.
I’ll be clear: this isn’t a complaint or a dunk. It’s merely an observation of human and organization behavior, which I believe is true in any aspect of business. Not only hiring or recruiting:
👉We spent most of our time in “react” state. Not “cause” state.
I do believe the industry is changing for the positive. By industry I mean all aspects. Internal processes. External agencies. And most of all, the partnership and collaboration models between them.
But it’s slow. Hot markets, when things fire on all cylinders, trick us into thinking the positive changes are permanent. Interview efficiency, positive candidate experience, the high priority placed on recruiting, etc.
In reality, they last until your organization gets an economic punch in the face. Forces out of your control cause you to react by changing plans and abandoning things you know you should do.
You’ve probably seen lots of recycled business hot takes echoing “a down economy is when the next empires are built.” I don’t hate that one, actually. Because it’s simply suggesting that you remain in cause state when things are at their worst.
👉Do proactive, impactful things with long term in mind. Even when you’re in reactive panic-mode about your short term issues.
Tldr don’t let a down market turn you into an empty suit.
Partner at Hirewell. #3 Ranked Sarcastic Commenter on LinkedIn.
Repeat after me: do not talk politics at work. Or on LinkedIn.
Or in job interviews. Or on first dates. Or at Thanksgiving dinner.
Unfortunately for those of us in the business world, 2025 ruined it. There’s just no way around the fact that tariffs are the issue driving the business climate right now. Every client, candidate, and partner is asking about it—or struggling because of it.
So maybe, just maybe, talking policy isn’t just okay—it’s necessary. Dare I say, productive.
So get ready for a little nuance from Jeff Smith and James Hornick in The 10 Minute Talent Rant, Episode 107, “Talk Policy, Not Politics”
Episode 107