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Q3 is in the books. For 6-8 weeks, we’ve talked about the increase in hiring activity. While it is too early to call it a complete comeback, the data is encouraging.
It is all about perspective. Let’s take a step back before talking about where we are today.
2023 was rough. From the peak of 2022 (May), we saw a steady 10-20% quarter-over-quarter decline. Each practice (Tech, GTM, Corporate Functions, Industrial, and Real Estate) saw slightly different trends. But none were very strong or consistent. Things bottomed out in the back half of 2023. That meant some pretty ugly numbers in Q3/Q4 of 2023.
Don’t believe me? Here is a not-so-fun chart.

Those are the quarterly numbers for our tech practice (our largest team). In case you were wondering, yes, there was a bump in Q1 2023.
We’d signed a large project in Q4 2022 to do a multi-hire engagement (think 100+ roles). A large bank retained us to build their product and digital team. Unfortunately, they went out of business in March 2023 (halfway through the engagement). #RIPFirstRepublic.
For those of you counting at home, that’s a 50% peak-to-trough drop from Q1 2022 to Q3 2023. No bueno.
I’d love to say I handled all of this with the calm demeanor of a captain steering a ship through a storm. Not exactly. While it wasn’t Titanic-level bad, there were plenty of rough patches. Luckily, I’ve been surrounded by a great team to help navigate things.
One of our values is – Don’t stop, especially when things get tough.
Most people (myself included) roll their eyes when it comes to company values. But this one held true. Our team never stopped. It has shown in our recent results. Here are some trends.
A significant acceleration in Year-over-year hiring
The largest Quarter-over-quarter improvement in 2+ years
Demand for RPOs and Multi-hire engagements
What does all of this mean for Q4? Your guess is as good as mine. We aren’t seeing any sign of things slowing down during the first two weeks of October. But October is typically a busy month for hiring.
I recently attempted to update our Q4 projections. I pulled our Q4 numbers for the past four years for a point of reference. In 2020 and 2021, Q4 was our largest quarter of the year (30% of our annual revenue). In 2022 and 2023, it was our smallest (20% of revenue).
What does it all mean?
Q4 can be great when the market is accelerating. And terrible when it is slowing down.
Insight like that is why I get paid the big bucks, I guess.
You know what would make me perfectly happy? Something in the middle…
What does that mean if you are looking to hire? There is still less competition than there was 2+ years ago. But most people don’t NEED to make a move (ie they won’t take your low ball offer).
Take advantage of it if you can. If these trends continue, it is going to get a lot more competitive in a quarter or two.
Happy hiring and check back in 3 months from now to see how things played out.
If you’re hiring in 2026, you’re dealing with two realities at the same time.
First, traditional signals like degrees and pedigree are losing their value.
Second, Gen Z is reshaping expectations around speed, transparency, and trust.
Together, those forces are pushing talent acquisition into its next evolution.
As we outlined in Agentic HR Is Here: What Talent Acquisition Really Looks Like in 2026, recruiting is becoming more autonomous at the execution level. But autonomy alone doesn’t solve the core hiring problem.
You still need a better way to evaluate people.
That’s where skills-first hiring comes in.
For decades, degrees were used as a shortcut.
Not because they reliably predicted success, but because they reduced perceived risk and simplified decision-making.
That logic no longer holds.
Roles are changing too fast. Job titles mean less than they used to. And in a market where AI can generate a polished resume in seconds, pedigree is an even weaker signal.
Companies need capability, not credentials.
The bigger shift isn’t just skills-based hiring. It’s skills intelligence.
Instead of organizing work around static job descriptions, companies are starting to think in terms of capabilities. Work is assigned based on skill, not hierarchy or tenure.
This is the same evolution happening across workforce planning more broadly. Not headcount planning, but capability planning.
And it’s the only model that holds up in a fast-moving market.
Skills-first hiring is gaining traction because it solves multiple problems at once.
It improves quality of hire.
It increases internal mobility.
It reduces bias tied to pedigree.
And it aligns better with how work actually gets done.
But it’s also accelerating for a more practical reason.
The resume is no longer reliable.
As we covered in The AI-on-AI Hiring Arms Race, recruiting teams are now dealing with a flood of highly optimized, AI-generated applications. Many look great on paper and collapse under real scrutiny.
When that happens, skills-based evaluation stops being a “nice to have.” It becomes the only way to restore signal.
Now layer in Gen Z.
By 2026, Gen Z is one of the fastest-growing segments of the workforce. They are also the least tolerant of slow, opaque hiring processes.
One of the most important data points in the market right now is this:
A majority of Gen Z candidates will drop out if a hiring process exceeds 22 days.
Speed, to them, isn’t about impatience. It’s about competence.
If a company can’t run a clear, efficient hiring process, candidates assume it can’t run the business well either.
It’s a trust issue.
A large percentage of job seekers report that looking for work negatively impacts their mental health. The biggest driver isn’t rejection.
It’s silence.
Waiting to hear back. No closure. No clarity on next steps.
For Gen Z, that lack of transparency is a dealbreaker. It signals misalignment, not just poor communication.
In 2026, how you hire is inseparable from how you’re perceived as an employer.
For Gen Z, the hiring experience is part of the offer.
They expect:
If the process feels like a black box, they assume the culture is the same.
This is where skills-first hiring and agentic systems intersect. Technology can speed up execution, but only leadership can ensure the experience remains human.
The companies adapting fastest in 2026 are focused on a few fundamentals:
Skills-first hiring isn’t just about fairness. It’s about accuracy.
And Gen Z isn’t asking for special treatment. They’re forcing employers to modernize a hiring process that’s been broken for a long time.
The companies that adapt will hire better, faster, and with less churn. The companies that don’t will keep blaming the market while losing candidates to competitors who simply run a better process.
Most companies agree with skills-first hiring in theory. Very few have operationalized it in a way that actually improves outcomes. If you want help redesigning your hiring process for 2026, especially around skills-based evaluation and candidate experience, we can help. Reach out and we’ll walk you through what’s working right now.